According to The Kobeissi Letter, equity markets are showing notable reactions as the US 10-Year Treasury Note yield rises above 4.50%, now more than 80 basis points higher than pre-Fed Pivot levels. This surge in yields is pushing mortgage rates above 7%, auto loan rates past 10%, and credit card rates over 20%, signaling tighter financial conditions. For crypto traders, these developments are critical, as higher yields and borrowing costs often reduce risk appetite in traditional markets, which can either increase volatility or drive flows into digital assets as alternative investments (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 21, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US equity markets are responding to rising yields for the first time since April 9th, with the 10-year Treasury yield now exceeding 4.50%, over 80 basis points higher than pre-Fed Pivot levels (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 21, 2025). This surge has pushed mortgage rates above 7%, auto loans over 10%, and credit card rates beyond 20%. The tightening financial conditions are increasing risk-off sentiment, which historically leads to outflows from both equities and risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Crypto traders should monitor liquidity risks and potential volatility as higher yields and borrowing costs may trigger further downside across risk-on markets.

According to @markets, US deficit spending has been supporting elevated yields for over 12 months, directly impacting the 10-year Treasury yield. The divergence between the 10-year yield and the S&P 500 increased noticeably ahead of the trade war, as cited by @markets. Alongside the unwinding of the basis trade, interest rates remain approximately 90 basis points higher than before the widely discussed 'Fed pivot' (source: @markets). For crypto traders, this persistent rate elevation signals tighter liquidity conditions and increased volatility, as digital assets often react to broader risk sentiment shifts stemming from traditional markets.

According to Cas Abbé, the current uptrend in Bitcoin ($BTC) is seen as a strong indicator of a potential future pivot by the Federal Reserve. He emphasizes that this environment presents the optimal period for traders to accumulate altcoins, as a FED policy shift has historically preceded significant rallies in alternative cryptocurrencies. Traders are advised to position themselves ahead of a possible altcoin market surge, referencing prior market cycles where similar macroeconomic signals led to substantial alt rallies (Source: Cas Abbé on Twitter, May 3, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the bond markets are signaling a potential recession if current tariffs persist. The 10-year note yield has decreased by 90 basis points in approximately two months, currently sitting below 3.90% for the first time since September 22, 2024. This drop marks the onset of the 'Fed Pivot', highlighting significant changes in monetary policy that traders must monitor closely.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, inflation dropped significantly in March, with @truflation reporting it now below 2%. This decrease is crucial as it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with implications for a potential pivot. Traders are closely watching the upcoming CPI data release on April 10, as a lower-than-expected inflation rate could trigger a 'risk-on' rally in the markets.

According to Milk Road, March saw a significant drop in inflation, with Truflation reporting levels now under 2%. This development comes ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on April 10, which the markets are closely monitoring as it could influence a potential Federal Reserve policy shift. A lower-than-expected CPI could trigger a risk-on rally, as traders anticipate a potential easing of monetary policy.

According to @KobeissiLetter, since the Fed's pivot in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have doubled, reaching 3.3% for the next two years. This marks the highest inflation expectation since March 2023, suggesting that traders are skeptical about the Fed's credibility in controlling inflation.

According to @KobeissiLetter, since the 'Fed pivot' in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than doubled, reaching +3.3% over the next two years, the highest since March 2023. This shift indicates a significant market disbelief in the Fed's ability to control inflation, impacting trading strategies and asset valuations.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, since the 'Fed pivot' in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than doubled, now anticipating a 3.3% inflation rate over the next two years, the highest since March 2023. This shift suggests traders are questioning the Federal Reserve's credibility in controlling inflation.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve's recent pivot appears to be ineffective as inflation indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have risen. CPI has reached a 7-month high, and PPI is at its highest since February 2023. Additionally, interest rates paid by Americans have increased by 100 basis points since the rate cuts began, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve's recent 'pivot' has led to an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to a seven-month high, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has reached its highest level since February 2023. This shift has resulted in interest rates for Americans rising by 100 basis points since the rate cuts began, highlighting the ongoing challenges of inflation management. These indicators are crucial for traders assessing inflationary pressures and interest rate trends, which can significantly impact market strategies.